New Uses of Wastewater Data on High-Risk Substances: Emerging Drug Detection, Overdose Prediction, and Drug Policy Evaluation

This new research by Biobot Analytics and Mathematica, in partnership with the Washington/Baltimore High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (W/B HIDTA), reveals the power of wastewater data in addressing the drug epidemic. The results of the study show the valuable insights wastewater data can provide to states and communities struggling with the drug epidemic

Key findings from the report include the following: 

• Wastewater serves as an effective early warning for new threats. Xylazine, an emergent drug threat, was detected in wastewater at least one month before reported overdoses, providing crucial time to launch public health interventions and tailor harm reduction strategies to new types and locations of emerging threats.
• Wastewater intelligence can predict overdoses. Using advanced analytics, the study sheds light on how a novel wastewater-based alert algorithm could be leveraged to reliably predict drug overdoses, flagging 71 to 100% of suspected overdoses and offering vital lead time (8 to 11 days) for preventative action.
• Wastewater fills data gaps, particularly in rural communities. Wastewater data helped fill gaps in drug overdose data, particularly in rural communities, where data and resources can be sparse; it can also shed light on patterns of polysubstance usage.
• Policy changes could be evaluated with wastewater intelligence. Wastewater data registered a decrease in fentanyl use in two Kentucky counties following the decriminalization of fentanyl test strips, providing early evidence of the promise of wastewater data for evaluating the effectiveness of programs targeting substance use and related harms.

Download the full research brief to learn more about how wastewater monitoring can be used as an effective tool in detecting emerging opioid threats, predicting overdoses, and tailoring treatments.